Economic Scenarios for Ogden Valley’s Proposed Incorporation

Keep Our Valley Free, a group organized against the incorporation of Ogden Valley, hired the Utah Foundation to perform a supplementary analysis to the state’s required feasibility study. This includes alternative scenarios that explore how the proposed city’s finances might fare under differing circumstances, including higher population growth, lower population growth, smaller commercial base, and higher cost/lower revenues.

In broad terms, the Utah Foundation finds that the Ogden Valley area continues to meet the required financial benchmark (a five-year average budget surplus of 5%) under several scenarios that deal with higher expenses or limited fees. However, the prospective city would no longer meet the required financial benchmark in scenarios with lower levels of growth, fewer second homes, or a smaller local sales tax base. In addition, the Utah Foundation found that fast population growth can offset all other negative scenarios combined. However, lower levels of growth may force the potential city to consider raising taxes, increasing fees, or reducing services to cover lower building permit revenues.